This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the International Panel o­n Climate Change (IPCC)  scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today’s 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today’s 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

Advances in Geosciences/ Published by Copernicus Publications o­n behalf of the European Geosciences Union
Authors: M. Weiß, M. Flörke, L. Menzel, and J. Alcamo, Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3, 34109 Kassel, Germany

You can download the study here

Source: website of Euro-Mediterranean Information System on know-how in the Water sector

Updated on 3/11/2008 2:44:22 PM.